The bookmakers have frozen all bets because it’s that time again when the crystal balls, tarot cards and Ghanaian witch doctors all come together to cast their all-seeing eyes over the Tour de France and reveal exactly what will go down over the next three weeks of almost-certainly tepid bike racing.
OK maybe the Cyclist team’s predictions won’t be as successful as the Harry Kane curse was, but now that’s been generously lifted, who knows what sorcery is round the corner? Probably not these sorry lot.
For our full Tour de France preview with in-depth stage previews, points explanations and mostly unbiased rider rankings, click here.
Pete Muir, editor
After Carlos Rodríguez wasn’t included in the Ineos team, head honcho Pete had to have a cabinet reshuffle of his own in his predictions.
Yellow: Ooh, err… Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
I really, really don’t want to say Pogačar will romp to his fifth win, because it’s just so tediously obvious, but it’s hard to see how it won’t happen, short of divine intervention.
The Tour de Suisse showed that he’s on the kind of form that allows him to ride away from rivals at will. His nearest contender, Jonas Vingegaard, has the Giro weighing heavily on his legs and has lost a vital lieutenant in Wout van Aert. Tadej, meanwhile, has arguably the next strongest rider in the field, Isaac del Toro, holding his bags and scheduling his meetings. It’ll likely be the most challenger-free crowning since Andy Burnham.
Green: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Tougher one to call, but with no Jonathan Milan, and Mads Pedersen having a so-so year by his standards, I’m calling it for Philipsen, who seems to be showing something close to his best form. Or it could be Tim Merlier. No, it’s still Philipsen.
Polka dot: Tadej Pogačar
Remember last year, when Pog cruised to overall victory? He picked up the mountains jersey entirely by accident along the way, and I suspect he’s going to do it again. Some brave soul, like Ben Healy, will bury himself to hold onto the jersey until Stage 20, and then he’ll watch it disappear on the slopes of the Col de Sarenne.
White: Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Admit it, you were expecting me to say Paul Seixas, but I reckon this isn’t the French teenybopper’s year. He’s yet to be tested over three weeks and is coming off an injury at the Dauph… sorry, the Tour Oven-Ready-Cotes du Rhone-Alpen (subs please check). Del Toro looked pretty impressive at the aforementioned race and will be at the head of affairs at all times during the Tour in his role as Tadej’s parasol. Those youth points will just keep stacking up.
Curveball: Netcompany Ineos to have a strangely good race
With Scottish hopeful Oscar Onley out with injury, the perennial underachievers look all set to return empty-handed from the Tour, but that lack of expectation could play to their advantage. There’s a tasty TT for Filippo Ganna, plenty of hilly bits for Thymen Arensman to shine on, and the mercurial Dorian Godon can have fun on the breakaway days. I reckon it’ll be the best year for ages for the boys in grey.
Martin James, production editor
The Seixas hype train has left the station, but Martin may have let off his choo-choos before its scheduled departure.
Yellow: Tadej Pogačar
Over the past five years, Britain has lost twice as many Prime Ministers than Tadej Pogačar has lost stage races. That probably says more about politics than cycling, but the point stands. And yes, both of those losses came at this very race to the man most likely to beat him again this year in Jonas Vingegaard. But there was something soul-crushing about Pogačar’s almost nonchalant GC-neutering performance on day one at the Tour de Suisse that suggests we may be a few more PMs down the road before we see him beaten again.
Green jersey: Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)
They’re far from the victory-hoovering force of five years ago, but if feels like Soudal Quick-Step are slowly rediscovering their race-winning mojo – helped in no small part by Paul Magnier’s maglia ciclamino success at the Giro. Given his outright speed, Merlier doesn’t have quite the star-studded palmarès he probably should at the age of 33, and while he’s had a fairly quiet 2026 so far, the reclassified points system should favour pure sprinters more than in recent Tours. Provided the legs are there, this could be Merlier’s best – and potentially last – chance to stand on the Paris podium in green.
Polka dot jersey: Pogačar
Over the six-year GC stranglehold at the Tour between Pogačar and Vingegaard, the overall winner has also picked up the mountains prize on four of those occasions. So it’s a relatively safe bet, especially in a year when there are no double points on offer for any of the HC climbs, meaning a single heroic effort in the high mountains is less likely than before to dramatically impact the standings.
White jersey: Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)
The young man really is quite good, isn’t he? Whether he’s good enough to win the whole thing one day remains to be seen – he’s never even ridden a Grand Tour before, after all, never mind come close to winning one – but the fact we’re even talking about the possibility says it all about the 19-year-old’s potential. Yellow can wait, but provided he can go the distance, white looks to be well within his grasp even at the first time of asking.
Wildcard: Seixas is the new Warren Barguil
It’s not quite the four-decade existential crisis that France’s wait for another overall winner at the Tour has become, but it’s now been nine years since Warren Barguil had hearts and Tricolores all aflutter by sprinting to a Bastille Day victory after a breathless day of action in the Pyrenees in 2017. This year’s la Fête nationale showpiece isn’t as short or sharp, but seven categorised climbs and the fervour of the roadside support could make it hard for the typical default second-week breakaway group to manage the gap successfully. And while the finish isn’t quite as tough as the Mur de Huy…
Will Strickson, website editor
As we all know by now, these will be entirely correct predictions, and highly entertaining – which is what really matters.
Yellow: Isaac del Toro
What a turnout this will be. When the Pogačar-Vingegaard battle is closer than anticipated, UAE switch up their tactics and send Isaac del Toro up the road to force the fisherman’s hand, but he doesn’t react and Torito goes on a rampage akin to Simon Yates on the Finestre to take yellow. He’ll hold onto the jersey from there, even if Pogačar is forced to hold back slightly after the duo drop the Dane on the Sarenne à la Froome waiting for Wiggins in 2012 and Vingegaard and Roglič almost waiting for Sepp Kuss on the Angliru.
After his home country is brutally knocked out of the World Cup by Tommy Too Cool’s irresistible England at the Azteca, the Bull saves the summer. ¡Viva México!
Green: Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM)
While one fish gets battered, another will having the ride of his life in the algae jersey. The Dutchman had a tricky start to the year after his transfer from Visma to Decathlon, but he has been impressive in his sole (pun intended) month of racing, looking very sharp at the Baloise Belgium Tour. While Philipsen used his versatility to take the overall victory, in the proper bunch sprints Kooij split the winnings with Merlier. However the Quick-Step man doesn’t care about the green jersey, so while Kooij might not take all the sprint wins, his participation in the intermediates will tip the scales (pun intended) in his favour. Count Olav is about to turn France into his own giant Kooij pond.
Polka dot: Tadej Pogačar
Despite handing yellow over, that’ll just be a one-day and done deal, Pogačar will still be cleaning up the mountain finishes and there’ll be too much GC fighting and too much competition between the breakaway regulars to give this to anyone else.
White: Isaac del Toro
Seixas who? While I do think the Frenchman will finish in the top five overall, Del Toro is still just 22 so with yellow comes white.
Bonus: This will be the final top 10
- Del Toro
- Pogačar
- Vingegaard
- Seixas
- Remco
- Ayuso
- Lipowitz
- Johannessen
- Uijtdebroeks
- Riccitello
Ewan Wilson, staff writer
Ewan’s just discovered the keyboard shortcut for copy and paste. Bless.
Yellow jersey: Tadej Pogačar
Sure, I could sit here and forecast a redemptive win for Jonas Vingegaard, an Óscar Pereiro-style victory for Kévin Vauquelin or a thunderous debut for Paul Seixas, but I’d be a mug to choose anyone other than Tadej Pogačar. I’ll leave that for some of the other folk on the editorial team.
It’s the common-sense choice, especially after his dissection of the field at the Tour de Suisse and Tour de Romandie. Even despite the time Pogačar’s spent harvesting bitcoins, searching for hair dye at Superdrug and schmoozing with tax exiles in Monaco this year, the Slovenian seems to be unfathomably strong whatever the weather.
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen
Philipsen has been an enigma in 2026. He started the season in stinky form, but somehow managed to get his act together by the Classics. Since then, he’s looked aggressive and speedy, much like he was back in 2023 – and you know what happened then. The green jersey is really up for grabs this year, but given Tim Merlier’s points classification allergy, I think Philipsen will end up in green even if he doesn’t win the most stages. His team strength and versatility will prove lucrative in his hunt for a second maillot vert.
Polka-dot jersey: Tadej Pogačar
In pro cycling’s greatest buy-one-get-one-free offer, Tadej Pogačar will end up bagging another spotty shirt, despite his near three-week dictatorship in yellow. It’ll be loveless, but it’s the done thing these days. Bog off, Tadej.
White jersey: Isaac del Toro
I refuse to believe a 19-year-old can end up on the podium of a Tour de France. I don’t just mean the top three overall, I mean the final podium ceremony all together. Besides, it’ll be well past Seixas’s bed time at that point anyway. In that case, I’m going with Isaac del Toro, who’s well past A-Level age now. The Mexican has looked great over the past 12 months, and I envision him on the podium à la Adam Yates. Don’t forget, it’s been eight years since the white jersey winner last finished outside the top three overall.
Bonus: Lidl-Trek win Stage 1
Call me a sadist because I’m willing to fall at the very first hurdle with this one.
While many people are touting Ineos, UAE and Visma to be the favourites for the opening day’s TTT, I’m feeling a Lidl optimistic about Juan Ayuso’s men. This team look great on paper, with Mathias Vacek, Derek Gee-West and Mads Pedersen there to provide support. They were solid at Paris-Nice and the TARA result seemed fine enough, so I reckon there’s still a path to yellow in Barcelona. If that happens, I’m sure that’ll cause the first rift between Mattias Skjelmose and Juan Ayuso. Get the popcorn out.
Laurence Kilpatrick, staff writer
It won’t take long to realise that Laurence doesn’t have a clue, however he has had near-success with that approach in the past thanks to Dani Martínez and Ben O’Connor, so it’s probably safe to say most of these guys will come second in their respective categories.
Yellow: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
With age catching up with him, it’s fair to say that Pog’s best days are behind him. What a shame. It was nice while it lasted. The GOAT is dead, long live another GOAT.
Unable to cope with the heat in his dotage, in this year’s Tour Tadej will make way for the next generation of thigh bots. After an early DNF for the Slovenian, it will be Vingegaard’s yellow jersey to throw away. Unless he crumbles and hands it to one of the juvenile upstarts snapping at his heels.
Green: Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)
Not to piss on anyone’s green chips, but I was a big fan of Narváez’s quest for the maglia ciclamino at the Giro this year, and I’m hoping for more of the same in France. Sprint stages are inherently boring and my favourite memories of them involve some kind of rude intervention from a non-sprinters team. I’m thinking of that stage Geraint Thomas stole by attacking after a U-bend with just a few hundred metres to go, fudging the plans of all the sprint teams. That’s good melon.
With that in mind, let’s say that Ben Healy can be the Boucle’s Narváez and sweep up enough points to ruin the fun for the hulking fast men.
Polka dot: Paul Seixas
Stupid Seixas Paul (this is a rogue Simpsons reference -Ed) is the man here. After sufficient mishaps in week one, fuelled by Paul’s teenage diet of Lost Marys, blue light and anxiety, the newspaper dreams of a French yellow jersey winner will be lining the bins of every patisserie in the land. Battered and bruised, SSP will pick himself up and enjoy the leash he’s been given by the now unconcerned peloton. With the babysitters asleep on the sofa covered in Lays, Paul can mop up points galore and give the French ultras something to cheer about.
White: Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar)
Much as Isaac Del Toro looks the strongest of the gun slingers, there’s a part of me that thinks he’s going to suffer the fate of the sub-characters in Gryffindor, drowned by the oozing sludge of main character goop that they share a bus/haunted tower with.
And for that reason I think Cian Uijtdebroeks of Movistar will get the narrative arc he deserves. The hollow cheeks and sunken eyes of the cadaverous nearly-man Enric Mas have taken an overdue backseat this year to give the young Belgian a shot, after emerging from the deep shadows cast at Visma-Lease a Bike. Movistar is always around for a good time, if not a long time or a successful time, but maybe this year will be different.
Wildcard: Fred Wright on his shirt
In the spirit of the World Cup, and with the national champs jersey freshly pressed in his suitcase, is this the year Fred Wright finally pops his Tour cherry and banks a stage? (‘HELL NO’ I hear Ewan shout from across the office.) It seems like a long time since that string of agonising near misses and perhaps his moment has passed. But he’s a nice bloke and I hope he can bring it home for the Three Lions. With England heading home after a chastening defeat to Mexico in the Azteca, we will all need some cheering up.
Robyn Davidson, web writer
Robyn’s risk-taking has come on leaps and bounds with this prediction, taking a punt on one of the jerseys not to go to the favourite. Chapeau.
Yellow: Tadej Pogačar
It looks like history will be on the cards for Tadej Pogačar as he rides away to a record-tying fifth maillot jaune. There’s nary a chink in the UAE Team Emirates-XRG armour for Jonas Vingegaard to exploit despite a Giro win in his legs and Pogačar has been refusing to drop the ball all season. From one-day Classics to the Tour de Romandie and a five-stage Tour de Suisse sewn up on the first day, the pendulum is swinging one way for me. He’ll probably end the race with a Montmartre breakaway too. Just to rub salt in the Visma-Lease a Bike wound.
Points: Jasper Philipsen
There’s a whole host of decent sprinters here and as we all know, Tim Merlier couldn’t care less about intermediate breakaways. And, as you might remember, Jasper Philipsen was leading this classification before he crashed out last year. He’s back for another crack and it’s hard to see anyone surpassing him as long as he stays upright.
Mountains: Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step)
Winner of the Tour stage atop Mont Ventoux in 2025, Frenchman Valentin Paret-Peintre can get himself up a climb and is specifically eyeing the polka dots this time round the French rollercoaster. If he succeeds, he would be the first home rider to top the classification since Romain Bardet in 2019 and he wants to go for this specifically.
Soudal Quick-Step abandoned the GC experiment with the release of Remco Evenepoel and aren’t bringing Mikel Landa, which frees up the days they’ve not circled for Merlier. VPP has been riding well so far this season, second in the mountains classification at Paris-Nice and fourth overall in Catalunya.
White: Isaac del Toro
This one should be a real interesting battle to follow with strong debutants in Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas. The latter is only 19 years of age though while Del Toro finished second at the Giro last year and learnt some lessons from this in the process. His white jersey charge depends on how he’s utilised in Pogačar’s battle against Vingegaard. If there’s a big enough gap, he could be able to charge on like a bull, and if there’s no gap, he might be deployed as a dangling carrot given his own strength.
Wildcard: The vibes classification returns
Yes, everyone’s favourite classification returns. Who will display the most vibes at this year’s Tour? It’s all to play for. Afonso Eulálio won the award at the most recent Grand Tour, the Giro, while Ben Healy claimed top spot in the 2025 Tour.
My hand has been forced to make this an official prediction, so let’s say Magnus Cort will bring home the 2026 trophy on his final attempt.