This is it, this Sunday \u2013 the first major final of the season is HERE! The Leicester Riders<\/a> defend their BBL Cup title against the London Lions<\/a> and we\u2019ve teamed up with BBL Maths<\/a> to take a deep-dive into the analytics behind both finalists! Read on for some incredible insights from BBL Maths\u2019 Ali Gilfillan.<\/p>\n In recent years, the Riders have ran a primary nine-man Competing in the 7Days EuroCup, the Lions have invested in more players, with inactive lists that would make for fairly formidable BBL starting fives. Coach Schmidt has an embarrassment of riches, as we can see here, as the Lions have more quality (more players with a higher Box Plus\/Minus) across all positions. <\/p>\n We have the two best teams in the BBL facing off against Breaking into the Four An area for Leicester to focus in on with regards to chinks in London\u2019s offence would be turnovers. London rank third in terms of forcing teams into turnovers with their defensive intensity, but are the second-worst themselves at turning the ball over. This will surely be a key area of focus for both teams. <\/p>\n With back-to-back BBL MVP Geno Crandall moving on from Having relied heavily on last year\u2019s backup guards Conner Taking to the court for the Lions to run the plays will Comparing the guards who have been running the offense since the beginning of the season, we see some contrasting abilities. Luke Nelson is the more creative of the two, but Mackenzie\u2019s security is superior. They have similar passing abilities, but Nelson is a bigger three-point threat, more able to spread the floor and open space for cutters inside.<\/p>\n In the BBL\u2019s (unofficial) Mid-season awards, Sam Dekker Comparing the two\u2019s player profiles shows the gulf in BPM. Dekker\u2019s is historic \u2013 last season\u2019s MVP Geno Crandall posted a league-leading BPM of 9.1, compared to Dekker\u2019s 13.9 so far this year. The other striking difference is in shot charts. Dekker relies on shots at the rim with some threes thrown in, in a classic NBA-style efficient shot profile. Loving will take more shots in the midrange, whilst also staying outside the three-point line more than Dekker.<\/p>\n It\u2019s another key match-up to watch: if Loving gets hot from deep, and Dekker misfires on the perimeter, it could be decisive. <\/p>\n Whilst the statistics show the Lions in the ascendancy in many key areas and why many pundits have dubbed them as favourites for Sunday\u2019s showdown, the Riders and their Head Coach Rob Paternostro have the experience in BBL finals to get the job done as well. One thing is for sure: I can\u2019t wait for this one!<\/p>\nThe Depth Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nrotation consisting of two bigs, three ball-handlers and four wings all getting
\nsignificant minutes. It\u2019s been enough to land them five of the last six BBL
\nChampionship titles (excluding the 2019\/20 season), as arguably the deepest
\nsquad in that period, but the London Lions\u2019 depth this year is on another
\nlevel.<\/p>\nHow these two teams perform<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n
\neach other per net rating. The Lions lead the way for defensive rating and rank
\nsecond in offensive rating, which the Riders top, with the Sharks pushing
\nLeicester into third on defensive rating.<\/p>\n
\nFactors of Success<\/a> (see below!), Riders and Lions take the top two spots in
\neffective field goal percentage scored and allowed, demonstrating that these
\nare two teams who know how to generate great shots for themselves and force bad
\nlooks for their opponents.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/gs-multisite-prod\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/166\/2023\/01\/26103531\/Four-factors-of-Success-1024x1024.png\")
\u2022 Rebounding: the % of rebounds secured after a missed shot.
\u2022 Turnovers: estimate of the number of turnovers by the team per 100 possessions.
\u2022 Free-throws: the number of made free-throws divided by the number of field goals attempted.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nThe Floor Generals<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nthe Morningside Arena this summer, it is no secret \u2013 nor is it surprising,
\ngiven his immense talent \u2013 that the Riders have struggled to fill the hole left
\nby their former play-calling talisman. <\/p>\n
\nWashington and Kimbal Mackenzie so far this season, they\u2019ve landed on their fourth
\nimport point guard in Carrington Love, who will suit up for the first time for
\nLeicester in the final. In this setting with this team, he is a complete
\nunknown quantity, but boy would the Riders love a Crandall-esque performance
\nfrom him in Sunday\u2019s showdown. <\/p>\n
\nlikely be another mid-season acquisition in Jordan Taylor, who is fast
\nestablishing himself as one of the BBL\u2019s best floor generals. <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/gs-multisite-prod\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/166\/2023\/01\/26110518\/Player-comparison-1024x1024.png\")
\u2022 Security: Turnover % adjusted by Box Creation. Punishes primary ball handlers less than traditional turnover %.
\u2022 Passing: An estimate of the quality of a players passes, based on box score and play-by-play derived stats.
\u2022 Spacing: Three point percentage adjusted for frequency, component of Box Creation. Higher volume shooters are bigger threats, so space the floor more.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nThe gunslingers <\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n
\nwas unanimously selected as the favourite for the season-ending MVP award. The
\nthree BBL pundits<\/a> are backed up by Box Plus Minus calculations in
\npredicting Dekker as the Player of the Season, however he\u2019s played fewer
\nminutes than Leicester\u2019s top player by BPM, Marc Loving. There is almost
\nnothing to separate these two players in terms of True
\nPoints Added<\/a> for their respective teams, but the caveat is that Dekker is
\nproducing this level of impact in almost half of the minutes that Loving plays.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/gs-multisite-prod\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/166\/2023\/01\/26111910\/Dekker-Loving-1024x512.png\")
<\/figure>\n