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Back in December, when our minds were all occupied with holiday thoughts, the NBA announced that the league and the players\u2019 union had agreed to extend their mutual deadline for opting out of the Collective Bargaining Agreement until February 8. In general, exercising an opt-out clause happens when talks are bogged down, so extending the deadline seems like a sign that talks are progressing.<\/p>\n
What could that mean? There is talk of owners trying to impose a firmer salary cap, but that\u2019s because a few teams can afford to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in luxury taxes in order to exceed the cap now in place. That\u2019s an indication that the sport is awash in money, something neither side is likely to jeopardize by forcing a work stoppage.<\/p>\n
The most likely impact of the new CBA is that the minimum age for draft eligibility will be lowered from 19 to 18. There\u2019s some irony here, because most of the justifications for lowering the age have disappeared. Top players can make money while attending college because of name, image, and likeness rules.<\/p>\n
If a player doesn\u2019t feel like going to college, there are professional options like Overtime Elite and G League Ignite where he can earn six figures in an atmosphere more geared toward developing his game. Top draft picks like Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga have already taken this path. The other \u201cproblem\u201d with having the draft age at 19 was the mockery it made of the student-athlete model.<\/p>\n
This is because most one-and-done players would take the bare minimum of courses their first semester in order to remain eligible, then skate by their second semester without attending any classes at all because the season would be over by the time their grades for those classes were posted. Fortunately, the NCAA has stopped trying to convince us that academics are a priority, so worrying about things like star players going to class seems quaint.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the main reason the age limit was raised is still there: most high school seniors aren\u2019t playing at a level of competition that will give NBA scouts a good indication of whether their skills will translate to the league. With options available that will enable young players to make money without NBA teams risking lottery picks on untested talent, this feels a bit like solving a problem that didn\u2019t need to be solved.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to imagine that NBA general managers are stoked about this change. Not only does this mean they will have less game data on which to make draft decisions, but Draft Day also starts the clock on the second contract, which is where the big money is. Teams have to begin making decisions on exercising options for the player\u2019s season as soon as the rookie season ends, and then they start negotiating on the long-term extension after the third season.<\/p>\n
If a player is drafted at age 18, that could mean the team has to decide whether to commit hundreds of millions of dollars, with all those salary cap implications, when the player is only 21. If the GM guesses wrong, he won\u2019t be around to negotiate that player\u2019s third deal.<\/p>\n
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