The bookmakers have frozen all bets because it\u2019s that time again when the crystal balls, tarot cards and Ghanaian witch doctors all come together to cast their all-seeing eyes over the Tour de France and reveal exactly what will go down over the next three weeks of almost-certainly tepid bike racing.<\/p>\n
OK maybe the Cyclist team\u2019s predictions won\u2019t be as successful as the Harry Kane curse was, but now that\u2019s been generously lifted, who knows what sorcery is round the corner? Probably not these sorry lot.<\/p>\n
For our full Tour de France preview with in-depth stage previews, points explanations and mostly unbiased rider rankings, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n After Carlos Rodr\u00edguez wasn\u2019t included in the Ineos team, head honcho Pete had to have a cabinet reshuffle of his own in his predictions.<\/p>\n I really,\u00a0really<\/em>\u00a0don\u2019t want to say Poga\u010dar will romp to his fifth win, because it\u2019s just so tediously obvious, but it\u2019s hard to see how it won\u2019t happen, short of divine intervention.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Tour de Suisse showed that he\u2019s on the kind of form that allows him to ride away from rivals at will. His nearest contender, Jonas Vingegaard, has the Giro weighing heavily on his legs and has lost a vital lieutenant in Wout van Aert. Tadej, meanwhile, has arguably the next strongest rider in the field, Isaac del Toro, holding his bags and scheduling his meetings. It\u2019ll likely be the most challenger-free crowning since Andy Burnham.<\/p>\n Tougher one to call, but with no Jonathan Milan, and Mads Pedersen having a so-so year by his standards, I’m calling it for Philipsen, who seems to be showing something close to his best form. Or it could be Tim Merlier. No, it’s still Philipsen.<\/p>\n Remember last year, when Pog cruised to overall victory? He picked up the mountains jersey entirely by accident along the way, and I suspect he’s going to do it again. Some brave soul, like Ben Healy, will bury himself to hold onto the jersey until Stage 20, and then he’ll watch it disappear on the slopes of the Col de Sarenne<\/a>.<\/p>\n Admit it, you were expecting me to say Paul Seixas, but I reckon this isn’t the French teenybopper’s year. He’s yet to be tested over three weeks and is coming off an injury at the Dauph\u2026 sorry, the Tour Oven-Ready-Cotes du Rhone-Alpen (subs please check). Del Toro looked pretty impressive at the aforementioned race and will be at the head of affairs at all times during the Tour in\u00a0his role as Tadej’s parasol. Those youth points will just keep stacking up.<\/p>\n With Scottish hopeful Oscar Onley out with injury, the perennial underachievers look all set to return empty-handed from the Tour, but that lack of expectation could play to their advantage. There’s a tasty TT for Filippo Ganna, plenty of hilly bits for Thymen Arensman to shine on, and the mercurial Dorian Godon can have fun on the breakaway days. I reckon it’ll be the best year for ages for the boys in grey.<\/p>\n The Seixas hype train has left the station, but Martin may have let off his choo-choos before its scheduled departure. <\/p>\n Over the past five years, Britain has lost twice as many Prime Ministers than Tadej Poga\u010dar has lost stage races. That probably says more about politics than cycling, but the point stands. And yes, both of those losses came at this very race to the man most likely to beat him again this year in Jonas Vingegaard. But there was something soul-crushing about Poga\u010dar\u2019s almost nonchalant GC-neutering performance on day one at the Tour de Suisse that suggests we may be a few more PMs down the road before we see him beaten again.<\/p>\n They\u2019re far from the victory-hoovering force of five years ago, but if feels like Soudal Quick-Step are slowly rediscovering their race-winning mojo \u2013 helped in no small part by Paul Magnier\u2019s\u00a0maglia<\/em>\u00a0ciclamino<\/em> success at the Giro. Given his outright speed, Merlier doesn\u2019t have quite the star-studded\u00a0palmar\u00e8s\u00a0he probably should at the age of 33, and while he\u2019s had a fairly quiet 2026 so far, the reclassified points system<\/a> should favour pure sprinters more than in recent Tours. Provided the legs are there, this could be Merlier\u2019s best \u2013 and potentially last \u2013 chance to stand on the Paris podium in green.<\/p>\n Over the six-year GC stranglehold at the Tour between Poga\u010dar and Vingegaard, the overall winner has also picked up the mountains prize on four of those occasions. So it\u2019s a relatively safe bet, especially in a year when there are no double points on offer for any of the HC climbs, meaning a single heroic effort in the high mountains is less likely than before to dramatically impact the standings.<\/p>\n The young man really is quite good, isn\u2019t he? Whether he\u2019s good enough to win the whole thing one day remains to be seen \u2013 he\u2019s never even ridden a Grand Tour before, after all, never mind come close to winning one \u2013 but the fact we\u2019re even talking about the possibility says it all about the 19-year-old\u2019s potential. Yellow can wait, but provided he can go the distance, white looks to be well within his grasp even at the first time of asking.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not quite the four-decade existential crisis that France\u2019s wait for another overall winner at the Tour has become, but it\u2019s now been nine years since Warren Barguil had hearts and\u00a0Tricolores\u00a0<\/em>all aflutter by sprinting to a Bastille Day victory<\/a> after a breathless day of action in the Pyrenees in 2017. This year\u2019s\u00a0la F\u00eate nationale<\/em>\u00a0showpiece isn\u2019t as short or sharp, but seven categorised climbs and the fervour of the roadside support could make it hard for the typical default second-week breakaway group to manage the gap successfully. And while the finish isn\u2019t quite as tough as the Mur de Huy\u2026<\/p>\n As we all know by now, these will be entirely correct predictions, and highly entertaining \u2013 which is what really matters.<\/p>\n What a turnout this will be. When the Poga\u010dar-Vingegaard battle is closer than anticipated, UAE switch up their tactics and send Isaac del Toro up the road to force the fisherman\u2019s hand, but he doesn\u2019t react and Torito goes on a rampage akin to Simon Yates on the Finestre to take yellow. He\u2019ll hold onto the jersey from there, even if Poga\u010dar is forced to hold back slightly after the duo drop the Dane on the Sarenne \u00e0 la Froome waiting for Wiggins in 2012 and Vingegaard and Rogli\u010d almost waiting for Sepp Kuss on the Angliru.<\/p>\n After his home country is brutally knocked out of the World Cup by Tommy Too Cool’s irresistible England at the Azteca, the Bull saves the summer. \u00a1Viva M\u00e9xico!<\/em><\/p>\n While one fish gets battered, another will having the ride of his life in the algae jersey. The Dutchman had a tricky start to the year after his transfer from Visma to Decathlon, but he has been impressive in his sole (pun intended) month of racing, looking very sharp at the Baloise Belgium Tour. While Philipsen used his versatility to take the overall victory, in the proper bunch sprints Kooij split the winnings with Merlier. However the Quick-Step man doesn\u2019t care about the green jersey, so while Kooij might not take all the sprint wins, his participation in the intermediates will tip the scales (pun intended) in his favour.\u00a0Count Olav is about to turn France into his own giant Kooij pond.<\/p>\n Despite handing yellow over, that\u2019ll just be a one-day and done deal, Poga\u010dar will still be cleaning up the mountain finishes and there\u2019ll be too much GC fighting and too much competition between the breakaway regulars to give this to anyone else.<\/p>\n Seixas who? While I do think the Frenchman will finish in the top five overall, Del Toro is still just 22 so with yellow comes white.<\/p>\n Ewan’s just discovered the keyboard shortcut for copy and paste. Bless.<\/p>\n Sure, I could sit here and forecast a redemptive win for Jonas Vingegaard, an \u00d3scar Pereiro-style victory for K\u00e9vin Vauquelin or a thunderous debut for Paul Seixas, but I\u2019d be a mug to choose anyone other than Tadej Poga\u010dar. I\u2019ll leave that for some of the other folk on the editorial team.<\/p>\n It\u2019s the common-sense choice, especially after his dissection of the field at the Tour de Suisse and Tour de Romandie. Even despite the time Poga\u010dar’s spent harvesting bitcoins, searching for hair dye at Superdrug and schmoozing with tax exiles in Monaco this year, the Slovenian seems to be unfathomably strong whatever the weather.<\/p>\n Philipsen has been an enigma in 2026. He started the season in stinky form, but somehow managed to get his act together by the Classics. Since then, he\u2019s looked aggressive and speedy, much like he was back in 2023 \u2013 and you know what happened then. The green jersey is really up for grabs this year, but given Tim Merlier\u2019s points classification allergy, I think Philipsen will end up in green even if he doesn\u2019t win the most stages. His team strength and versatility will prove lucrative in his hunt for a second maillot vert<\/em>.<\/p>\n In pro cycling\u2019s greatest buy-one-get-one-free offer, Tadej Poga\u010dar will end up bagging another spotty shirt, despite his near three-week dictatorship in yellow. It\u2019ll be loveless, but it\u2019s the done thing these days. Bog off, Tadej.<\/p>\n I refuse to believe a 19-year-old can end up on the podium of a Tour de France. I don\u2019t just mean the top three overall, I mean the final podium ceremony all together. Besides, it\u2019ll be well past Seixas\u2019s bed time at that point anyway. In that case, I\u2019m going with Isaac del Toro, who\u2019s well past A-Level age now. The Mexican has looked great over the past 12 months, and I envision him on the podium \u00e0 la Adam Yates. Don\u2019t forget, it\u2019s been eight years since the white jersey winner last finished outside the top three overall.\u00a0<\/p>\n Call me a sadist because I\u2019m willing to fall at the very first hurdle with this one.\u00a0<\/p>\n While many people are touting Ineos, UAE and Visma to be the favourites for the opening day\u2019s TTT, I\u2019m feeling a Lidl optimistic about Juan Ayuso\u2019s men. This team look great on paper, with Mathias Vacek, Derek Gee-West and Mads Pedersen there to provide support. They were solid at Paris-Nice and the TARA result seemed fine enough, so I reckon there\u2019s still a path to yellow in Barcelona. If that happens, I\u2019m sure that\u2019ll cause the first rift between Mattias Skjelmose and Juan Ayuso. Get the popcorn out.<\/p>\n It won’t take long to realise that Laurence doesn’t have a clue, however he has had near-success with that approach in the past thanks to Dani Mart\u00ednez and Ben O’Connor, so it’s probably safe to say most of these guys will come second in their respective categories.<\/p>\n With age catching up with him, it’s fair to say that Pog’s best days are behind him. What a shame. It was nice while it lasted. The GOAT is dead, long live another GOAT.<\/p>\n Unable to cope with the heat in his dotage, in this year’s Tour Tadej will make way for the next generation of thigh bots. After an early DNF for the Slovenian, it will be Vingegaard\u2019s yellow jersey to throw away. Unless he crumbles and hands it to one of the juvenile upstarts snapping at his heels.<\/p>\n Not to piss on anyone’s green chips, but I was a big fan of Narv\u00e1ez’s quest for the maglia ciclamino<\/em> at the Giro this year, and I’m hoping for more of the same in France. Sprint stages are inherently boring and my favourite memories of them\u00a0involve some kind of rude intervention from a non-sprinters team. I’m thinking of that stage Geraint Thomas stole by attacking after a U-bend with just a few hundred metres to go, fudging the plans of all the sprint teams. That’s good melon.<\/p>\n With that in mind, let’s say that Ben Healy can be the Boucle’s Narv\u00e1ez and sweep up enough points to ruin the fun for the hulking fast men.<\/p>\n Stupid Seixas Paul (this is a rogue Simpsons reference<\/a> -Ed) <\/em>is the man here. After sufficient mishaps in week one, fuelled by Paul’s teenage diet of Lost Marys, blue light and anxiety, the newspaper dreams of a French yellow jersey winner will be lining the bins of every patisserie in the land. Battered and bruised, SSP will pick himself up and enjoy the leash he’s been given by the now unconcerned peloton. With the babysitters asleep on the sofa covered in Lays, Paul can mop up points galore and give the French ultras something to cheer about.<\/p>\n Much as Isaac Del Toro looks the strongest of the gun slingers, there’s\u00a0a part of me that thinks he’s going to suffer the fate of the sub-characters in Gryffindor, drowned by the oozing sludge of main character goop that they share a bus\/haunted tower with.<\/p>\n And for that reason I think Cian Uijtdebroeks of Movistar will get the narrative arc he deserves. The hollow cheeks and sunken eyes of the cadaverous nearly-man Enric Mas have taken an overdue backseat this year to give the young Belgian a shot, after emerging from the deep shadows cast at Visma-Lease a Bike. Movistar is always around for a good time, if not a long time or a successful time, but maybe this year will be different.<\/p>\n In the spirit of the World Cup, and with the national champs jersey freshly pressed in his suitcase, is this the year Fred Wright finally pops his Tour cherry and banks a stage? (‘HELL NO’ I hear Ewan shout from across the office.) It seems like a long time since that string of agonising near misses and perhaps his moment has passed. But he’s a nice bloke and I hope he can bring it home for the Three Lions. With England heading home after a chastening defeat to Mexico in the Azteca, we will all need some cheering up.<\/p>\n Robyn’s risk-taking has come on leaps and bounds with this prediction, taking a punt on one of the jerseys not to go to the favourite. Chapeau.<\/p>\n It looks like history will be on the cards for Tadej Poga\u010dar as he rides away to a record-tying fifth maillot jaune<\/em>. There\u2019s nary a chink in the UAE Team Emirates-XRG armour for Jonas Vingegaard to exploit despite a Giro win in his legs and Poga\u010dar has been refusing to drop the ball all season. From one-day Classics to the Tour de Romandie and a five-stage Tour de Suisse sewn up on the first day, the pendulum is swinging one way for me. He\u2019ll probably end the race with a Montmartre breakaway too. Just to rub salt in the Visma-Lease a Bike wound.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a whole host of decent sprinters here and as we all know, Tim Merlier couldn\u2019t care less about intermediate breakaways. And, as you might remember, Jasper Philipsen was leading this classification before he crashed out last year. He\u2019s back for another crack and it\u2019s hard to see anyone surpassing him as long as he stays upright.<\/p>\n Winner of the Tour stage atop Mont Ventoux in 2025, Frenchman Valentin Paret-Peintre can get himself up a climb and is specifically eyeing the polka dots this time round the French rollercoaster. If he succeeds, he would be the first home rider to top the classification since Romain Bardet in 2019 and he wants to go for this specifically.<\/p>\n Soudal Quick-Step abandoned the GC experiment with the release of Remco Evenepoel and aren\u2019t bringing Mikel Landa, which frees up the days they\u2019ve not circled for Merlier. VPP has been riding well so far this season, second in the mountains classification at Paris-Nice and fourth overall in Catalunya.<\/p>\n This one should be a real interesting battle to follow with strong debutants in Isaac del Toro and Paul Seixas. The latter is only 19 years of age though while Del Toro finished second at the Giro last year and learnt some lessons from this in the process. His white jersey charge depends on how he\u2019s utilised in Poga\u010dar\u2019s battle against Vingegaard. If there\u2019s a big enough gap, he could be able to charge on like a bull, and if there\u2019s no gap, he might be deployed as a dangling carrot given his own strength.<\/p>\n Yes, everyone\u2019s favourite classification returns. Who will display the most vibes at this year\u2019s Tour? It\u2019s all to play for. Afonso Eul\u00e1lio\u00a0won the award at the most recent Grand Tour, the Giro, while Ben Healy claimed top spot in the 2025 Tour.<\/p>\n My hand has been forced to make this an official prediction, so let’s say Magnus Cort<\/a> will bring home the 2026 trophy on his final attempt.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nPete Muir, editor<\/h2>\n
Yellow: Ooh, err\u2026 Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)<\/h3>\n
Green: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)<\/h3>\n
Polka dot: Tadej Poga\u010dar <\/h3>\n
White: Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)<\/h3>\n
Curveball: Netcompany Ineos to have a strangely good race<\/h3>\n
Martin James, production editor<\/h2>\n
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Yellow: Tadej Poga\u010dar <\/h3>\n
Green jersey: Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)<\/h3>\n
Polka dot jersey: Poga\u010dar<\/h3>\n
White jersey: Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)<\/h3>\n
Wildcard: Seixas is the new Warren Barguil<\/h3>\n
Will Strickson, website editor<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-jupiter.metropolis.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/07\/20260614TARA0178-A.S.O.-Gaetan-Flamme-970x647.webp\")
Yellow: Isaac del Toro\u00a0<\/h3>\n
Green: Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM)<\/h3>\n
Polka dot: Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/h3>\n
White: Isaac del Toro<\/h3>\n
Bonus: This will be the final top 10<\/h3>\n
\n
Ewan Wilson, staff writer<\/h2>\n
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Yellow jersey: Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/h3>\n
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen<\/h3>\n
Polka-dot jersey: Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/h3>\n
White jersey: Isaac del Toro<\/h3>\n
Bonus: Lidl-Trek win Stage 1<\/h3>\n
Laurence Kilpatrick, staff writer<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-jupiter.metropolis.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/07\/20260315PNC0136_A.S.O.-Billy-Ceusters-970x647.webp\")
Yellow:\u00a0Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)<\/h3>\n
Green: Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)<\/h3>\n
Polka dot: Paul Seixas<\/h3>\n
White: Cian Uijtdebroeks (Movistar)<\/h3>\n
Wildcard: Fred Wright on his shirt<\/h3>\n
Robyn Davidson, web writer<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn-jupiter.metropolis.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2026\/07\/20260614TARA0157-A.S.O.-Gaetan-Flamme-970x647.webp\")
Yellow: Tadej Poga\u010dar <\/h3>\n
Points: Jasper Philipsen <\/h3>\n
Mountains: Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal Quick-Step)<\/h3>\n
White: Isaac del Toro<\/h3>\n
Wildcard: The vibes classification returns<\/h3>\n