Published June 28, 2026 03:47PM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Many are presuming Tadej Poga\u010dar will romp to a fifth Tour de France<\/a> win but Jonas Vingegaard<\/a>, the only rider to ever beat him in the Tour, begs to differ.<\/p>\n The Dane emulated Poga\u010dar\u2019s achievement of two years ago when dominating the Giro d\u2019Italia this spring, and hopes to further mimic the Slovenian\u2019s follow up success in the Tour.<\/p>\n Forget the suggestions that targeting the Italian race this season was in some ways an indication that Vingegaard believed he couldn\u2019t win in France.<\/p>\n His morale is on a high following his cluster of stage wins plus his GC triumph one month ago.<\/p>\n \u201cThose were incredible weeks for us,\u201d a motivated Vingegaard said this week.<\/p>\n \u201cNot only did we win the overall classification, but I also took five stage victories and Sepp [Kuss] won a stage as well. It gave us a huge boost and reinforced the feeling that we can win the Tour.<\/p>\n \u201cI believe in myself, and that confidence spreads throughout the team.\u201d<\/p>\n Prior to Poga\u010dar\u2019s 2024 double, the last rider to win both races in the same season was Marco Pantani in 1998.<\/p>\n Several big names had tried and failed to pull off the same feat.<\/p>\n Just as people second-guessed Vingegaard this year, Poga\u010dar was equally suspected of targeting the Giro because he had been vanquished in the previous two Tours.<\/p>\n However he was strong in Italy and even stronger again in France.<\/p>\n Two years on from that, Vingegaard\u2019s Giro win was similarly dominant. He ended up a clear 5:22 ahead of Felix Gall, despite indications are that he didn\u2019t really go that deep.<\/p>\n His racing style, his conservatism on some of the toughest stages and his team\u2019s own approach very much spelt out that he was trying to win while also saving some energy for the Tour.<\/p>\n Go too deep and the danger would be that he would have less to give in July. But do it just right and the Giro could build rather than drain, serving as a powerful platform from which to improve even further.<\/p>\n What\u2019s also important for Vingegaard is that he has finally caught up after his big crashes in 2024 and 2025.<\/p>\n He lost momentum as a result of those complications, but there are indications he has finally got back on track.<\/p>\n Indeed, speaking towards the end of the Giro, Vingegaard suggested that he might be \u201cbetter than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n In further reassurance for his fans and teammates, he pointed out that when he did the Vuelta a Espa\u00f1a after the Tour, his power had been even greater than in France.<\/p>\n And while he noted that his weight has also been higher on those occasions, he said he would make sure the increase in kilos wouldn\u2019t happen this time around.<\/p>\n \u201cI believe I will be in very, very good shape for the Tour de France,\u201d he predicted in late May. That sounded ominous then, and is wildly exciting now.<\/p>\n Visma Lease a Bike<\/a>\u2019s head of performance Mathieu Heijboer spoke to The Athletic<\/a> and backed that up. \u201cFor sure, there will be a closer battle between Jonas and Tadej than last year,\u201d he said then.<\/p>\n Heijboer accepted suggestions that the Dane could have pushed harder in the Giro, confirming that he had kept something in reserve.<\/p>\n \u201cI always get asked to compare his top shape or what percentage he is at, but it\u2019s difficult to say. What is key for him and for us is that he was never really pushed to the limit. The only time was when he pushed himself.<\/p>\n \u201cWe can say that the level he reached, especially on uphill finishes in the last week, was very high, maybe even higher than we expected.\u201d<\/p>\n How high exactly?<\/p>\n Heijboer confirmed he was \u201cway better\u201d than when he took his victories in the Tour de France.<\/p>\n The sport has, of course, moved on from 2022 and 2023. The general acceptance in the peloton is that the level has increased year on year, making comparisons with Vingegaard\u2019s previous form a little hard to interpret.<\/p>\n But if he was indeed at a higher level in the Giro, and if he can indeed eke out more improvement for the Tour, that could be very promising indeed.<\/p>\n What\u2019s important is that he already knows how to vanquish Poga\u010dar. He did, after all, defeat him twice to take his own Tour wins.<\/p>\n If his legs are indeed where he wants them to be, we could be facing an epic three weeks in France. A much, much closer battle than in 2024 and 2025 could well be on the cards.<\/p>\n Then throw in riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Paul Seixas and others and a very dramatic race may lie ahead.<\/p>\n What\u2019s most important right now is that Vingegaard has avoided the complications he faced in recent seasons.<\/p>\n There have been no major crashes or other setbacks this year. He\u2019s physically had a clear run at things, and mentally he\u2019s on a high.<\/p>\n Winning the Giro, and becoming only the eighth rider in history to take all three grand tours, has done wonders for his morale.<\/p>\n Any doubts that might have existed after his defeats in 2024 and 2025 have been dispelled.<\/p>\n \u201cThat gave me a tremendous amount of confidence heading into the Tour de France,\u201d he confirmed, referring to his Giro successes.<\/p>\n For Vingegaard, what\u2019s important is that he\u2019s happy, he\u2019s hungry and he is where he needs to be to put in the best possible campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cA third Tour victory would be a dream come true.<\/p>\n \u201cIt has been three years since I last won the Tour, and ever since then it has remained one of my biggest goals,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In less than one week the flag will drop and his most important-ever campaign will begin.<\/p>\nWinning in May but with an eye on July<\/h2>\n
\u2018The level was higher than expected\u2019<\/h2>\n
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The stars align<\/h2>\n
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