Updated June 22, 2026 03:33AM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Who will win the Tour de France?<\/a><\/p>\n We\u2019re finally at a point to lay our bets<\/a>.<\/p>\n Key altitude camps have been ticked-off.<\/p>\n Tune-up races are done.<\/p>\n All that\u2019s left for Tadej Poga\u010dar<\/a> and the favorites to do before the grand d\u00e9part<\/em><\/a> on July 4 is a couple of sharpening workouts, a bit of recon, and taper.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s our yellow jersey form guide and power ranking, based on a magic formula of recent results, team strength, and editorial \u201csense.\u201d<\/p>\n The golden rule of modern cycling? Never bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n The Slovenian just plowed through yet another near-perfect season and rates himself fitter than ever<\/a>. His grip on the WorldTour shows no signs of loosening.<\/p>\n A record-equalling fifth Tour de France title is at his fingertips.<\/p>\n OK, so there are some<\/em> question marks for the Tour\u2019s two-time defending champion.<\/p>\n Jonas Vingegaard looks better than ever, and Poga\u010dar hasn\u2019t truly been tested in a GC context this year. His opposition in Romandie and Switzerland were \u2013 no offense \u2013 hardly A-Tier.<\/p>\n And who knows?<\/p>\n Pogi may find himself distracted by the injury of his partner, Ur\u0161ka \u017digart. Or the ennui<\/em> that zapped him in the back half of last year\u2019s race may resurface.<\/p>\n But we\u2019re clutching at straws here.<\/p>\n Don\u2019t bet against Tadej Poga\u010dar, and don\u2019t do it at the 2026 Tour de France.<\/p>\n Jonas Vingegaard<\/a> might be back to his best. Maybe even back to his Tour de France-winning vintage of 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n He just won the Giro d\u2019Italia without really trying, and completed a season-long stage-racing unbeaten streak while he was at it.<\/p>\n And for the first time in two years, the Dane powers toward the grand d\u00e9part<\/em> without the hangover of recent injuries and training disruptions.<\/p>\n It looks like Vingegaard could have cut his gap to Poga\u010dar in 2026.<\/p>\n But, without having seen him square up to his arch-rival since last year\u2019s Tour de France, it\u2019s hard to believe the Dane has eliminated the deficit altogether.<\/p>\n Isaac del Toro<\/a> deserves a lot more hype. The Mexican sensation was overshadowed this season by the phenomenal rise of Paul Seixas.<\/p>\n But Del Toro proved this year he\u2019s the real deal. He won every stage-race he finished and blew everybody off his wheel at the<\/em> Tour de France tune-up race, the Dauphin\u00e9.<\/p>\n The only thing holding back Del Toro as he romps into his Tour de France debut?<\/p>\n Tadej Poga\u010dar.<\/p>\n The superdomestique\u2019s fate<\/a> might be intertwined with that of his Merckxian leader.<\/p>\n If Del Toro doesn\u2019t get stuck serving bottles to King Pog, it\u2019s hard to see anybody coming near him.<\/p>\n Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 25<\/strong><\/p>\n Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA-CGM), 19<\/strong><\/p>\n The chase for fourth will be a battle between Mr. Unspectacularly Consistent and the most exciting, unproven talent the Tour has seen in years: Florian Lipowitz<\/a> vs. Paul Seixas<\/a>.<\/p>\n Lipowitz just doesn\u2019t miss, and he doesn\u2019t have any obvious weakness, either.<\/p>\n After a slow start to the season at the Volta ao Algarve, he hit the podium of every stage-race he started. A dominant victory at the Tour of Slovenia put an exclamation point on it for the German star.<\/p>\n But Lipowitz lacks the magic sparkle Seixas has so much of. He\u2019s never shown a hint of yellow jersey pedigree.<\/p>\n By contrast, the sky might be the limit for Seixas, a French phenom who\u2019s inspired hope in an entire nation.<\/p>\n He showed in skirmishes with Poga\u010dar at Strade Bianche and Li\u00e8ge-Bastogne-Li\u00e8ge he\u2019s afraid of nobody. And he\u2019s definitely got the physiology to pull off such youthful swagger.<\/p>\n Seixas has all the tools to win the Tour de France.<\/p>\n But it won\u2019t be this year.<\/p>\n So much can go wrong for him as he shoulders the weight of a nation in not only his first Tour de France, but his first-ever grand tour.<\/p>\n That said, if Seixas can deflect the home hype and race fault-free this summer, he could cause trouble for even his most experienced rivals.<\/p>\n Time to address the elephant in the ranking.<\/p>\n Where\u2019s Remco?<\/p>\n On his day, Remco Evenepoel<\/a> is one of the best in the world. He reasserted that pedigree this year at the Amstel Gold Race.<\/p>\n But the Olympic champion\u2019s GC resume for 2026 says it all.<\/p>\n Victory at Valenciana, a disappointing 10th in the heat and steeps of the UAE Tour, and a typically dramatic 5th at the Volta a Catalunya.<\/p>\n Evenepoel is a stage-racing wildcard that contrasts the steady hand of his teammate Lipowitz.<\/p>\n1. Tadej Poga\u010dar (UAE Emirates-XRG), 27<\/h2>\n
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2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), 29<\/h2>\n
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3. Isaac Del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG), 22<\/h2>\n
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The battle for fourth: Florian Lipowitz vs. Paul Seixas<\/h2>\n
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Leading the race for sixth: Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 26<\/h2>\n
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