A Roubaix Win Would Set Pogačar up for a Truly Huge Goal

Tadej Pogačar has said multiple times that he is not motivated by records. Equaling or bettering what others have done before is not what drives him; instead, achieving things that he has not personally achieved before are what most concerns him.

Sometimes, though, both of those things converge.

Following his solo win in Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, Pogačar is one week away from capturing the one monument that has eluded him thus far.

If he wins Paris-Roubaix, he will tick off a race he avoided until last year, and which he lost due to an inopportune crash.

Fixing that stat and answering that challenge is important to him.

If he does it, though, the cards may well fall into place for something truly unique.

Tadej vs Eddy: the debate continues

In recent years Pogačar has been increasingly compared to Eddy Merckx. Debates continue to rage about who is better. Merckx has achieved more than the Slovenian, at least thus far. He won over 500 races during his career, including five editions of both the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia, as well as one Vuelta.

Pogačar’s tally thus far? Four Tours, one Giro. He’s only 27 so it’s likely he will rack up many more but, even if his current momentum continues, clocking up the same number of victories seems unlikely. The sport has moved on, the general level is much higher and racing programs are more selective.

But where the comparisons with Merckx are valid—and where Pogačar is arguably better—is his level of dominance. He’s winning races from further out and by bigger margins than what the Belgian legend achieved, including his two successes at the world championships

He also achieved something unique last season, finishing on the podium of all five Monuments in the same season.

Not even Merckx did that.

Speaking of Monuments, the duo are the only riders in history to take three of those races in the same year.

If things go to plan in Roubaix, something far more spectacular could happen.

‘When I race there is pressure to win’

Speaking on the Eurosport TV coverage on Sunday, cycling legend Sean Kelly said that Roubaix is the hardest race to ride but the most satisfying to win.

Pogačar would sure feel the same way if he were to triumph next weekend.

He’s 66kg, lighter and smaller than Mathieu van der Poel, and far more suited to the high mountains than the cobbled flats.

He’s won three editions of Flanders by virtue of the climbs, with ramps such as Oude Kwaremont enabling him to take advantage of his high power to weight ratio.

That benefit disappears on the far flatter parcours of Roubaix, shifting the balance back in favor of Van der Poel and making victory there all the more difficult to achieve.

Still, he’s clearly in superb form and can’t be ruled out. Three wins out of three races thus far this season underlines that.

“I don’t race too much, so when I race there is pressure to win,” he explained on Sunday. “So far everything went perfect for me so I can be more than happy. Coming next week to Roubaix I can go motivated. I will try to enjoy the cobbles.”

Speaking prior to Flanders, he made clear that the race is indeed a major goal.

“I like to race all the monuments. Now I won four out of five and have been second in Roubaix,” he said, referring to career achievements. “I definitely want to fight for the victory also in Roubaix.

“I will try as long as I can and give my best to achieve this goal. It would be really good to have all five.”

‘Next week is the really tough one’

If Pogačar is successful next weekend, he will join an exclusive club. Only three riders in the history of the sport have won Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Il Lombardia during their careers. They are Rick Van Looy, Roger de Vlaeminck and Merckx himself.

However if Pogačar wins next Sunday, he will be in line for something altogether better. San Remo eluded him until this year, but he’s ticked that off. Flanders has been achieved again. Winning Roubaix would give him three of the five this year, leaving just Liège and Il Lombardia to fall.

Neither of those are easy races but considering his status as the best climber in the peloton, and considering his history in both events, he will start each as the clear favorite.

Unsurprisingly, questions are now turning to that possibility. Interviewed by Cycling Pro Net on Sunday, he was specifically asked if winning all five Monuments this season was a target.

“In one year I don’t know,” he said, smiling, “because next week is the really tough one. But I will give it a go. It is going to be difficult, I don’t want to think about it but just go from race to race and enjoy Roubaix next.”

If Roubaix does fall, though, suddenly the odds are in his favor to do something nobody ever achieved before in the same season.

Pogačar’s Liège record over the past five years is remarkable. He’s raced four times, crashing out in 2023 but winning the other three. And his performances in Lombardia are even more striking. Five starts, five wins, an all-time record.

Nothing is guaranteed but winning Roubaix would line everything up.

Bookies would be panicking, his rivals would be sweating and Eddy Merckx would be paying even more attention than before.