No. 1 overall seed Duke suffered one of the most stunning and gutting losses in recent NCAA Tournament history on Sunday, when it fell 73-72 against No. 2 seed UConn in an Elite Eight thriller. While the game-winning shot from Huskies freshman Braylon Mullins will go down in history, it only tells part of the story.
The catastrophic Duke turnover, which preceded it, spoke to larger issues both for Duke and for programs that carry the mantle of being the No. 1 overall seed. Only one of the last 10 teams to be proclaimed the No. 1 overall seed has cut down the nets when it was all said and done, underscoring the fact that being college basketball’s “regular season champion” only means so much once March Madness truly gets going.
Duke led by 19 in the first half and maintained the lead for the entire second half before slowly breaking down over the course of the second half, while looking like a team reeling under the weight of expectations. It was the second year in a row the Blue Devils suffered a stunning late collapse. Since the NCAA began naming a No. 1 overall seed in 2004, only four of them have gone on to win the national title.
2026 Final Four: Evaluating Michigan vs. Arizona, UConn vs. Illinois as March Madness reaches final weekend
Cameron Salerno
But there are tiers to the unmet expectations that come with that label. Some have battled until the Final Four, while others have flamed out on the first weekend. Here is the full rundown of how the No. 1 overall seeds from the past decade have fared.
The exception
2024 UConn — National Champions
Defining moment: UConn’s 30-0 run in its 77-52 Elite Eight win over Illinois all but solidified its inevitability as the national champion. It was the longest run by any team in an NCAA Tournament since at least 2015, and it came against a quality foe in a high-stakes game.
The gap between UConn and the rest of college basketball in 2024 was significant, and the Huskies’ march to a title, led in part by the giant footprint of 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan, was simplified by the fact that many of the other top contenders bowed out before the Final Four. The Huskies did have to take out fellow No. 1 seed Purdue — led by 7-foot-4 Zach Edey — in the national title game, though. UConn handled that assignment with poise while rattling off a 12th straight double-digit NCAA Tournament victory to hoist the championship trophy for a second consecutive year. This drama-free title run is the standard that any team with the distinction of being the No. 1 overall seed aspires to meet. But few have the combination of talent, experience and ruthless efficiency to reach it.
Knocked off near the finish line
2025 Auburn — Final Four loss
Defining moment: Auburn entered the final week of the regular season at 27-2 and with a 15-1 record in a historically dominant SEC. But the Tigers fizzled with three losses in four games entering the NCAA Tournament. It was a stretch that showed Auburn was running out of gas.
An Auburn team led by star forward Johni Broome lost in the Final Four to eventual national champion Florida in a competitive game, so there was no real shame in how it ended. This was still the best season in program history; the Tigers just didn’t have the juice after a taxing regular season run to get all the way to the finish line. It’s also worth noting there wasn’t a ton of separation between Auburn and the other No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday. Auburn had more losses than fellow No. 1 seeds Duke and Houston and had suffered head-to-head defeats against both during the regular season. If you’re wondering how this team got the No. 1 overall seed, here’s the explanation.
2021 Gonzaga — National title game loss
Defining moment: Jalen Suggs’ buzzer-beater against UCLA in the Final Four is an iconic shot in NCAA Tournament history. The title-game loss took some of the shine off, but it was an unforgettable moment for one of Mark Few’s best teams.
Led by Suggs and Drew Timme, Gonzaga came within a single victory of completing college basketball’s first unbeaten, national-title winning season since 1976. The Bulldogs handled that pressure with poise until the very end, winning their first four NCAA Tournament games by at least 16 points before Suggs’ overtime game-winner against UCLA in the sterile environment of the 2021 NCAA Tournament bubble. Ultimately, the Bulldogs ran up against the one team that pushed them for supremacy all season. Baylor operated at No. 2 in the AP poll for nearly the entire year and dominated the Zags 86-70 in the title game.
2019 Duke — Elite Eight loss
Defining moment: The most memorable moment of Duke’s 2018-19 season came when Zion Williamson’s shoe blew out in the first minute of a game against North Carolina on Feb. 20. Williamson missed nearly a month because of the injury he suffered on the play before returning in the postseason.
Duke’s star-studded freshman trio of RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson flamed out in the Elite Eight with a heartbreaking loss to Michigan State after close calls against UCF and Virginia Tech in the second round and Sweet 16. This was Mike Krzyzewski’s last team to receive a No. 1 seed. This Duke team was a must-watch group, but it was a horrendous 3-point shooting team that ultimately demonstrated a truth still haunting Duke today: it’s hard to win a title in the modern era when relying heavily on freshmen. Virginia also had a strong case to be the No. 1 overall seed in 2019, and the Cavaliers ultimately cut down the nets after earning the No. 2 overall seed.
2016 Kansas — Elite Eight loss
Defining moment: Without a future lottery pick on the roster, Kansas lacked the high-end pop to make good on its No. 1 overall seed. KU’s limitations showed in its Elite Eight loss to a Villanova team featuring the likes of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges.
Kansas earned the No. 1 overall seed in 2016 without necessarily being college basketball’s most dominant team all season. The Jayhawks dropped to No. 7 in the AP poll in early February amid a 5-3 start to Big 12 play. But a late-season surge of 14 straight wins, keyed by the veteran leadership of Perry Ellis, had this team looking like a “made for March” group come Selection Sunday. Meanwhile, No. 2 overall seed North Carolina lost four games in February, leaving KU in possession of the top spot in the bracket. An Elite Eight loss to eventual national champion Villanova brought the ride to an end.
Fell short of their ceiling
2023 Alabama — Sweet 16 loss
Defining moment: Alabama’s ride came with controversy, as star freshman Brandon Miller’s presence at the scene of a deadly shooting prompted calls for a suspension that never came.
This team showcased a stylistic revolution as the Crimson Tide demonstrated the possibilities inherent with playing a 3-point oriented style under rising star coach Nate Oats. Ultimately, the limitations of that style were also on display in a Sweet 16 showdown with defensive juggernaut San Diego State. The mantra of “live by the 3, die by the 3” proved true as a historic season came to an end with 3-of-27 shooting from beyond the arc against the Aztecs.
2022 Gonzaga — Sweet 16 loss
Defining moment: Chet Holmgren fouled out with over three minutes remaining in a Sweet 16 loss to Arkansas after logging just 24 minutes due to foul trouble
Gonzaga’s 2021-22 team boasted an elite frontcourt with Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren holding down the paint. Timme brought the buckets while Holmgren provided elite rim protection and a steady diet of double-doubles. This one might go down as the most frustrating of Mark Few’s close calls in the quest for a title, considering Holmgren’s prodigy-level talent and Timme’s veteran leadership and production. The Zags came well short of the title (Kansas won it all) yet still finished No. 1 at KenPom with a wide margin on the rest of the field.
Flameouts
2018 Virginia — First-round loss (to 16-seed UMBC)
Defining moment: Virginia became the first No. 1 seed ever to lose against a No. 16 seed when it fell 74-54 to UMBC in one of the most stunning upsets of college basketball history
Virginia’s iconic loss to UMBC set the stage for redemption in 2019 as the Cavaliers recovered by winning the national title. But in the moment, it was a stunning defeat that laid bare the vulnerability associated with Tony Bennett’s slow-paced style. When you play the way Virginia played — even with talented guards like Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome in the fold — upsets can happen. A 4-of-22 shooting performance from 3-point range and uncharacteristically poor defense from a strong defensive program killed the Cavaliers and brought a premature end to an otherwise dominant season.
2017 Villanova — Second-round loss
Defining moment: Villanova’s 2017 second-round loss to Wisconsin bore similarities to Florida’s 2026 second-round loss to Iowa as the reigning champions were bounced by a Big Ten opponent playing under a first-year coach.
Villanova brought back a great nucleus from its 2016 title-winning team, headlined by Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Mikal Bridges. The Wildcats spent most of December and January at No. 1 in the AP poll while earning both the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles. But it was a quick fall from the top as the Wildcats squandered their chance at a repeat with an uninspired performance against the Badgers.
2026 Duke — Elite Eight loss
Defining moment: No. 1 seeds were 134-0 all-time in NCAA Tournament games when leading by 15 or more at halftime until the Blue Devils blew a 44-29 halftime lead against UConn in the Elite Eight.
For the second year in a row, Duke squandered a double-digit second-half lead and collapsed in the NCAA Tournament. In 2025, the benefactor of the Blue Devils’ late-game ineptitude was Houston, which outlasted Duke in the Final Four to end Cooper Flagg’s one-year college career. This time, it was Cam Boozer’s dominant freshman season that went to waste before the national title game as Duke’s late-game bona fides under coach Jon Scheyer continued to be the program’s top issue in the post-Mike Krzyzewski era.
UConn’s systematic dominance in 2024 stands out as even more impressive in light of how the others saddled with the No. 1 overall seed label have fared. Duke’s failure to win a national championship in both 2019 and 2026 — as well as the Blue Devils’ late-game collapse in the 2025 Final Four — illustrate the inherent danger in relying on a freshman-oriented team when the spotlight gets bright. Nothing is guaranteed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of how brilliant you may have been leading up to Selection Sunday.