The final spots in the 2026 NCAA Tournament first round will be earned on Wednesday in Dayton as the First Four concludes. So before you finalize those Bracket Games selections, don’t forget there could be a bracket buster in action.
Wednesday night’s 16-seed battle between Lehigh and Prairie View A&M will play into the South Region, with a game scheduled against No. 1 seed Florida in Tampa on Friday. For the Mountain Hawks, this is the program’s first appearance in the NCAA Tournament since CJ McCollum and his 2012 teammates knocked out Duke in the first round as a 15-seed. So even though it’s been a while, this is a community that believes it has what it takes to challenge a title-winning program.
But getting there will be difficult because standing in the way is a Prairie View team that is 9-1 in its last 10 games and plays a hectic style that will add stress to the pressure of the NCAA Tournament stage. The Panthers have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 2019 and haven’t played in the first round since 1998, so a potential date with Florida does not loom as much as the opportunity to achieve something great in Dayton.
Then the nightcap features one of the best stories of the season in college basketball with Miami (Ohio) getting back in action after going one-and-done in the MAC Tournament with a loss to UMass in the quarterfinals. The vibes of 31-0 were quickly cooled as the RedHawks fell to 31-1, but the same reasons why this team won 31 games are the ones that will have Miami fans itching to get a crack at the field of 64.
Their opponent in SMU is, like a lot of bubble teams this year, not entering in its best form, with just one win in the team’s last six games. The Mustangs went 0-2 on their Bay Area road trip against Stanford and Cal and never got right, stacking up injury concerns and defensive issues as the season came to a close.
Let’s check out Wednesday’s First Four action with some picks for each game. All times below Eastern.
(16) Lehigh vs. (16) Prairie View A&M
6:40 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live
Neither of these teams were the best in their conference this season, which is why they find themselves in Dayton. So the question is which one regresses more to their season average in the time off between winning their tournament and Wednesday’s tipoff?
Prairie View’s numbers, for its part, might not represent its recent form as the Panthers have ripped off seven wins in a row and are playing at a different level than when they were 4-8 in conference play back on Feb. 15. When you see an 8-seed win an auto-bid, you assume there’s a major upset at hand, but Prairie View earned it with aggressive defense that helped force key turnovers and be the foundation of their conference tournament run in the SWAC. But if Lehigh can handle the ball pressure and not get beat on the glass, they can play this turn this into an execution game in the halfcourt.
That favors the Mountain Hawks with their 6-2 point guard Nasir Whitlock, who is the team’s offensive engine and also the gas, connecting on a blistering 44.8% of his 3-point attempts (averaging 2.3 made threes per game). He and center Hank Alvey run a two-man game that can stress even athletic defenses like Prairie View A&M. We see that as the game script that will unfold, with CJ McCollum’s alma mater advancing to the field of 64. Pick: Lehigh -3.5
(11) SMU vs. (11) Miami Ohio
9:40 p.m. on Tru TV | March Madness Live
The Dayton setting should make for a Miami-friendly crowd as the RedHawks get a chance to bounce back from their stunning upset loss in the MAC quarterfinals. Thanks to a 31-0 regular season, Miami (Ohio) made the field without too much sweat, it seems, but the strength-of-schedule issues that made their inclusion a midseason debate did push them to being First Four-bound.
So how will Miami’s success translate against a power conference opponent in SMU? Well, you could argue SMU’s defensive quality down the stretch of the regular season might have been closer to the MAC than the ACC. The Mustangs ranked 16th out of 18 teams in defensive efficiency in conference play and gave up 80 points or more in half of their ACC games. SMU does have a talent edge and a potential difference maker with 7-2 center Samet Yigitoglu going up against Miami’s frontcourt, and the RedHawks defense has been part of the blame for some close calls late in the year and the loss to UMass in the MAC Tournament. I know we’re in the habit of citing bouncy basketballs and travel issues for NCAA Tournament unders, but both offenses should be able to score with ease. Pick: Over 164.5