No matter what sport it is, predicting outcomes is pretty tough. That’s why the house always makes a crap ton of money on bettors. If it were easy to know who would win, we’d be like Biff Tannen in Back to the Future II with his sports almanac predicting wins and cashing in.
Tour de France Stage 1: The team time trial
The TTT opening this year’s Tour de France is even more interesting. It’s short—but fast—and could very well open up some big time gaps on the first day. The event hasn’t been at the Tour for several years, but the format is different for 2026.
They are using the “Paris-Nice” format, which means you take times from individual riders, and there is no minimum number of guys to finish together. It creates some interesting tactics—most teams will essentially do a long leadout and riders will burn off and sit up and make sure they cross in the time limit. The team leader, say, Tadej Pogačar, will effectively launch and finish solo. Some teams, though, may hedge their bets and have a backup second rider finish. Which might be the case for Osgoode, Ont.’s Derek Gee-West.
Lidl-Trek a strong favourite
Lidl-Trek should be one of the better teams in the opening TTT, with riders like Juan Ayuso, Mattias Skjelmose, Gee-West, Mathias Vacek, Quinn Simmons and Mads Pedersen. Visma-Lease a Bike and Pogi’s UAE are the other big contenders.
Gee-West, who will wear a spiffy new national TT champs skinsuit on Saturday, isn’t there necessarily for GC. He was a last-minute call-up and his German team has said he’s there to be a lieutenant for Ayuso. The Spaniard’s goal? To finish on the podium in Paris. Gee-West was in Quebec only last week, so it was obviously not planned that he’d be in France. Still, he just finished fifth at the Giro and has been impressive in multiple Grand Tours now, as well as major stage races.
So might Lidl-Trek have the Canadian stick with Ayuso, as opposed to launch? Maybe. And then what, if the team has a great TT?
Post TTT going into Stage 2
If Lidl-Trek finishes on or near the podium in the TTT, it could leave Gee-West just a handful of seconds off yellow. The next day, Gee-West pulls and attacks on the Montjuïc circuit and either wins the stage (10-second bonus) or pulls an Alex Stieda and finishes high enough to collect bonus seconds. Depending on the deficit, those bonuses alone could put him into yellow.
One interesting wrinkle is that Lidl-Trek has a couple of cards to play. Ayuso is the designated leader—but there’s also Skjelmose. The Dane is a fantastic climber, and remember, he wasn’t thrilled when they announced the signing of the Spaniard. He’s had his fair share of solid stage race rides too. Might he be waiting in the wings in case Ayuso has a jour sans?
Tactics and thinking of the big picture
Even more interesting is: Would Lidl-Trek let Gee chase yellow for a day or two? They may not want to defend it—and waste riders riding at the front, as the team of the maillot jaune does—but it doesn’t necessarily hurt Ayuso or Skjelmose and it brings enormous exposure to the team. I mean, it’s still the yellow jersey.
The other footnote is Pedersen. He’s a helluva strong rider in the TTs and a veritable watt monster. Maybe he would drag Ayuso to the finish instead. With his finish, he could also find himself in yellow early on—something he’s never done, and something he’s come close to doing.
Either way, Saturday’s TTT will be a crucial start to the Tour for all teams. Having it start off with that, as opposed to a week of flat stages for breaks or sprinters, will create some fascinating tactics.