In a recent post-game interview, Victor Wembanyama was asked to make his case for MVP. Among the reasons he gave, he stated that:
“Defense is 50 percent of the game, and that is undervalued so far in your race because I believe I’m the most impactful player defensively in the league”. “
Victor Wembanyama
While Wemby’s statement is true, undervaluing defense might just be part of the nature of the MVP award.
The importance of a great defense can not be overstated. Practically every championship team ever had an elite defense anchored by an elite defensive menace.
Victor Wembanyama’s defense is fueling his MVP case
The NBA recognizes these lockdown specialists with awards like DPOY and all defensive selections. These honors are given with zero consideration for offensive production. The most valuable player is basically the exact opposite.
Defense is given so little attention in MVP conversations that the award has actually been awarded to some of the WORST defenders the league has ever seen. James Harden won the prestigious award as an infamously bad defender.
Steph Curry, while a better defender than he’s given credit for, was widely considered a bad defender when he won it as well. When Steven Nash won back-to-back MVPs in the mid-2000’s, he was considered a liability, one article even calling him “defensively incapable”.
Obviously in Wemby’s situation, defensive dominance can only help his case, but production on the offensive side of the ball is clearly the deciding factor in MVP voting. Giannis has been an MVP candidate every year since 2019, and he’s a better defender than every player that has won it since then.
Defense must be weighted equally in MVP voting
The formula for winning MVP clearly doesn’t include defense, because if it did we would have seen many more Greek Freak MVPs than just two. In order for Victor to take home the trophy, his offensive output needs to be among the best in the league for his defensive efforts to push him over the top.
So how does Wemby compare to the offensive maestros of the NBA like Jokic, Shai, and Luka? Don’t get me wrong, Victor Wembanyama is having an outstanding season, but a lot of his case is fueled by the media and his overall team success.
When looking at the box score, the Frenchman’s 24.5 ppg jumps out, but the way he gets his points doesn’t say “offensive engine” as much as it says “ 7 ‘5 alien with a slew of talented point guards on his team”.
The three most effective ways that Vic gets to his offense are cuts, putbacks, and transition, while he’s in the bottom 40th percentile in iso, spot-up, and post-up efficiency. In short, he’s not great at creating his own shot.
Spurs’ Wembanyama has a chance to win MVP
For reference, Jokic is by far the most effective player overall in the NBA, while Shai dominates all self-creating methods of scoring as the most consistent scorer we have ever seen.
Wembanyama definitely has a real argument for MVP, but his offense simply just doesn’t match up with some of the other offensive weapons in the league. Is his defense enough to close that gap? History says no.
But if the Spurs can manage to overtake the Thunder for the one seed, and voters just see Wemby’s raw stats and not the method, then Victor Wembanyama can very well be this year’s MVP.