With roughly 15 games remaining, the NBA title race is coming into focus, and the true contenders are starting to reveal themselves.
Some teams are preparing for their first playoff run together. Others are chasing a championship. And a few have already shifted their focus to the draft.
But regardless of where a team sits in the standings, this is the time of year when one question starts to dominate: which teams can actually win the title?
History gives us a blueprint for what a championship team looks like. By applying those trends to this season, we can narrow the field to the teams that truly have a path to the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Which NBA team fits the 40-20 rule?
We can eliminate most of the league right away. Historically, true contenders follow the “40-20 rule,” reaching 40 wins before suffering their 20th loss.
Only three teams meet that benchmark this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit Pistons, and San Antonio Spurs.
However, the rule does not tell the full story this season. A couple of teams deserve consideration despite missing that benchmark.
There are several other fringe contenders
Look no further than the Boston Celtics. Boston had 38 wins when they suffered their 20th loss, just missing the cut for the 40-20 rule. That record does not account for Boston’s best player, Jayson Tatum, missing the first 62 games of the season.
He has looked solid since returning and could be a major boost for a team that was already performing at a borderline contender level. The Denver Nuggets are another team that requires additional context.
Denver had only 34 wins when they collected their 20th loss, but injuries have plagued their roster throughout the season. Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson have missed a combined 137 games this year. That is an astronomical number of missed games.
The Denver Nuggets are sleeper championship contenders
The good news for Denver fans is that most of those players are expected to be healthy by the playoffs. In fact, everyone on that list has already returned to the lineup except Watson, who is expected back soon.
Given Denver’s championship pedigree and the presence of the best player in the world in Jokic, they deserve a place in this discussion as well.
Cleveland, New York, the Lakers, Houston, and Minnesota are all strong teams, but each has shown enough inconsistency or structural flaws to suggest they are a tier below true contention.
The teams that should be considered the strongest contenders are the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, and Denver Nuggets. In 3 future pieces we will further break down each team’s chances.