Bad Luck Was the Key to Pogačar’s San Remo Success

When Tadej Pogačar thumped to the ground after a high speed scrap for positions less than an hour from the finish of Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the whole UAE Emirates-XRG team held their breath. So too the other squads in the peloton, plus the masses of fans watching the race on TV.

The Slovakian had started the race as joint favorite with Mathieu van der Poel, but as Pogačar gingerly rose off the ground, his rainbow skinsuit a mess of rips and road dirt, many thought his race was over.

Footage from the UAE Emirates-XRG car shows directeur sportifs Andrej Hauptman and Maxtin Joxean Fernandez in stunned silence when a rider broke the news over the radio. ‘Tadej crashed, Tadej crashed.’

Pogačar got going again and then confirmed that he was injured. “I hit my knee pretty bad,” he said.

The fall undoubtedly complicated his race, leaving him a bit battered, a bit bruised, and with a big time deficit to overcome.

And yet, considering how everything went, it seems reasonable to suggest the unsuggestible. Was that crash the key to his San Remo success?

The theory may seem farcical, but bear with us.

The chips fall into place

Pogačar fell with approximately 33km to go and faced a chase of 5 kilometers. Aided by teammates Florian Vermeersch and Felix Grossschartner, he reached the back of the bunch right at the base of the Cipressa climb. Brandon McNulty took over there and dragged him up and through the bunch, with the duo finally hitting the front 2km later.

McNulty was on a superb day and continued to pull hard, ramping the pace right up and sending rider after rider out the back. Isaac Del Toro then hit the front but about 200 meters later Pogačar himself accelerated, doing what he could to shred the remainder of the peloton and reducing the list of contenders to just himself, Tom Pidcock (Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling) and Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech).

The trio tore down the descent and on flat roads to the start of the Poggio, where Pogačar—likely still recovering from his crash and from the energy expended to get back into contention—quickly dropped Van der Poel and put Pidcock under real pressure all the way to the summit.

The fact that he couldn’t drop the Briton is noteworthy: Pogačar has been able to jettison him at will in the past, notably in races such as Strade Bianche. Pidcock admitted he was under pressure on the climb and, had Pogačar been fresher, the world champion may well have seen him off.

Instead the battle for victory came right down to the final sprint, and to a margin of what Pidcock reported was just four centimeters.

It was much tighter than it might have been, so how can it be argued that the crash helped his chances?

The reason is all down to Pogačar’s stomping form.

What would have happened without the crash?

Pogačar is flying: he started the Cipressa right at the back of the bunch and beat last year’s climbing time—which itself was the fastest ascent ever—by several seconds. Estimates vary a little: according to Domestique, he went up the hill in 8:48, seven seconds faster than Van der Poel—who started the climb ahead of him—and 11 seconds faster than last year’s record.

The website Climbing-Records.com puts his time at 8:47, and that of Van der Poel at 8:55. Either way, he was considerably faster than Pidcock and Van der Poel, despite his chase and his injuries.

Now consider what may have happened had he not fallen. A fresher Pogačar would likely have started right at the front of the peloton, would likely have been even faster and, almost certainly, would have blown away both Pidcock and Van der Poel. He would have gone over the summit ten or more seconds ahead, and begun a 22km solo time trial towards San Remo.

He’s one of the very best descenders in the world, as shown by the pressure he put Pidcock under on Saturday, and may have gained a little more time on the downhill. But this year, the flat roads after that descent were marked by a headwind, something which is very difficult for a solo rider to handle when chased by a peloton.

Indeed Pogačar referenced this in his post-race comments.

“When we were turning, I was really happy everybody worked,” he explained. “It was a bit of a headwind, not ideal like last year. It was a bit harder in the middle part.”

As things worked out, he, Pidcock and Van der Poel had a mere eight seconds over the peloton at the start of the Poggio. Had Pogačar been solo, and had the chase behind been bolstered by the Pinarello Q36.5 Pro Cycling and Alpecin-Premier Tech teams of those two rivals, it is reasonable to believe things would have been a whole lot tighter.

Could he have been caught? It’s very possible. In that scenario the race outcome would have been very, very different.

Good luck out of misfortune

Hitting the deck is never a good thing. The adrenalin of the race kept Pogačar going and the true effects of the crash will likely only be felt in the days after the race.

And yet, given how things played out, given the two breakaway companions he ended up with, given the collaboration they shared on the roads to the Poggio, and given the pulls Pidcock contributed on the decent towards San Remo and inside the last couple of kilometres, the scant four second winning margin they held over Wout Van Aert and the chasing bunch at the finish was almost certainly due to their pooled effort.

A solo Pogačar after the Cipressa would have looked spectacular, and would have been the likely consequence of him not falling when he did.

But, considering the wind and considering those tight margins at the base of the Poggio and at the finish line on Saturday, a solo scenario points to him being recaptured rather than staying free.

In that scenario, a fresher Pidcock or a less fatigued Van der Poel may well have lit up the Poggio instead.

Nobody likes to crash, and nobody feels better after a fall. But maybe, just maybe, being delayed and being a little less dominant on the Cipressa were the keys to success on Saturday.

That fall kept two rivals within contact and gave Pogačar some strong company instead of facing the headwind all on his own.

Hitting the ground seemed a nightmare, yet likely unlocked a dream win.