Correctly picking an upset in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament can earn you a huge edge in bracket pools, but selecting a No. 16 seed to do the job against a No. 1 seed is highly regarded as a fool’s errand.
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, a 16 seed has defeated a 1 seed only twice in 160 attempts. UMBC made history by becoming the first to accomplish the feat with a 74-54 triumph over Virginia in 2018. Ironically, the Retrievers could get the opportunity to do it again as they face Howard in the First Four, with the winner earning the No. 16 seed in the Midwest Region and a meeting with top-seeded Michigan.
Just three years ago, FDU joined UMBC in the exclusive group by edging Purdue 63-58.
In summation, No. 16 seeds are just 2-158 all-time against No. 1 seeds. The good news is, the unexpected has happened twice in the last eight years.
Are any top seeds in danger this time around? It’s very unlikely.
Duke (11 games) and Arizona (nine) enter the tournament with lengthy winning streaks. Florida and Michigan failed to win their respective conference tournaments, but those two teams lost back-to-back games a total of one time this season.
While it’s a tall order for any 16 seed to pull off an upset this year, let’s break down the matchups to see which team the projection model from the Inside the Lines team gives the best chance to shock the world.
16 vs. 1 upset rankings
These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Howard/UMBC over Michigan
The Wolverines posted six consecutive victories before being defeated 80-72 by Purdue in the final of the Big Ten Conference tournament on Sunday. It was just the third loss of the season for Michigan, which has reached the Sweet 16 in each of its last six NCAA Tournament appearances.
Michigan was a No. 1 seed three previous times and recorded a first-round win each time. UMBC, which enters its First Four matchup with a 12-game winning streak, is 1-2 all-time in the tournament while Howard, which has won eight straight contests, lost all four of its previous appearances.
The Retrievers and Bison both have been playing well, but the ITL team’s projection model sees UMBC winning their matchup. However, it gives the Retrievers a mere 1% chance to strike again and upset the Wolverines. The model expects Michigan to win by more than 20 points.
3. Lehigh/Prairie View over Florida
The Gators were beaten by Vanderbilt 91-74 in the semifinals of the SEC tournament to end their 12-game winning streak, but they are the defending national champions, after all. Therefore, the winner of the First Four clash between Lehigh and Prairie View likely will need a Herculean effort in order to endure Florida’s wrath and pull off the upset.
The ITL team’s model says Lehigh will knock off Prairie View, but the Mountain Hawks get past the Gators in just 2% of its simulations. It’s calling for Florida to win by almost 30 points.
2. LIU over Arizona
The Wildcats are a No. 1 seed for the eighth time in school history and for good reason, as they are the second-ranked team in the country. They have posted nine consecutive victories since suffering their only two losses of the season — an overtime setback against Texas Tech and a four-point defeat versus Kansas. Both of those opponents were ranked.
LIU won its first Northeast Conference regular-season title since 2011-12 and defeated Mercyhurst in the final of the conference tournament. However, the Sharks are 0-7 all-time in the NCAA Tournament and are making their first appearance since 2018.
Arizona was shocked by 15th-seeded Princeton in the first round three years ago, but the ITL team’s model says it will breeze past LIU, which it gives just a 2% chance to pull off an upset. The model sees the Wildcats winning by more than 20 points.
1. Siena over Duke
Ranked No. 1 in the nation, the Blue Devils tasted defeat only twice this season. Those losses were by a total of four points, and both came against ranked opponents (82-81 to Texas Tech and 71-68 to North Carolina).
Duke, which is a No. 1 seed in the tournament for the second straight season, enters with an 11-game winning streak after having beaten Virginia in the final of the ACC tournament. Siena beat Merrimack in the final of the MAAC Championship for its fourth consecutive victory and owns a 4-6 record in the NCAA Tournament, but the Saints lost to Maryland by 15 points in 2002 — the only other time they were a No. 16 seed.
While the ITL team’s model gives Siena very little chance to get past Duke, it does say the Saints are the most likely No. 16 seed to come up with a monumental upset. The model’s simulations have Siena winning 5% of the time, but it expects the Blue Devils to win by 20-plus points.